The Market's True Earnings Expectations

Go beyond the consensus and become a better stock picker with Earnings Whisper numbers, investor sentiment, and proprietary research and tools to help you capture the Post-Earnings Announcement Drift (PEAD) and outperform the overall stock market. Plus, get the most accurate earnings dates, earnings news, and insights into how stocks react before and after earnings.



Most Anticipated Earnings Releases TM

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The most anticipated earnings releases for the week beginning October 21, 2026 are TSLA Tesla META Meta Platforms LRCX Lam Research CAJPY Canon BE Bloom Energy

Earnings Whisper Grade

The Drift Didn’t Die. The Yardstick Did.

Every earnings report gets a grade, A+ to F, scoring the results against the market’s true expectations — not the consensus estimate. Across 121,713 reports from Dec 2002 – Jul 2026, the grades have kept their order: failing grades trail, C grades track the market, and A+ stocks averaged 37.5% annualized — more than 3 times the S&P 500.

37.5% A+ stocks 4,866 reports
11.3% S&P 500 same holding windows
+231.1% A+ over the market annualized
December 17, 2002 – July 30, 2026 Quarterly Returns by Earnings Whisper Grade 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% F: −0.3% average over 5,931 reports (47% finished higher) F D-: +0.9% average over 6,813 reports (50% finished higher) D- D: +1.5% average over 8,612 reports (52% finished higher) D D+: +1.6% average over 13,014 reports (54% finished higher) D+ C-: +2.2% average over 15,575 reports (56% finished higher) C- C: +2.2% average over 14,716 reports (56% finished higher) C C+: +2.8% average over 14,603 reports (57% finished higher) C+ B-: +3.2% average over 12,923 reports (57% finished higher) B- B: +4.0% average over 9,040 reports (59% finished higher) B B+: +4.7% average over 8,637 reports (59% finished higher) B+ A-: +5.6% average over 4,684 reports (59% finished higher) A- A: +7.6% average over 2,299 reports (59% finished higher) A A+: +8.3% average over 4,866 reports (62% finished higher) A+ The S&P 500 has averaged 2.7% per quarter A+ Earnings 37.5% Average Annualized Return 231.1% over the S&P 500 Buying at the open following an earnings release and holding until after its next earnings release.
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The Whisper Report®

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The Wrong Path

Monday, October 19, 2026
Fundamentals offer little evidence that the AI trade is over, but semiconductor price action tells a different story.
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Earnings Preview

CAJPY Canon is confirmed to report Tuesday, October 27, before the open.

Canon Tests Its Highs Into September-Quarter Results as Sentiment Turns Cautious

Canon heads into its September-quarter report with an unusual split between price and mood. The shares have climbed 7.7% since the company last reported, beating the S&P 500 by more than five percentage points, and now sit within a whisker of their post-earnings high. Yet sentiment among retail investors has soured, sliding to 28.3% bearish from 14.0% bearish ahead of the prior report. A stock that keeps rising while the crowd grows more skeptical raises the question this release must settle: is the rally resting on durable earnings power, or has it run ahead of the fundamentals?

The numbers set an undemanding hurdle on one measure and a tougher one on another. In the year-ago September quarter, Canon earned $0.48 per share on revenue of $7.49 billion. Last quarter it earned $0.89 per share on $7.41 billion in sales, nearly double the year-ago figure on slightly lower revenue. That gap is the heart of the setup. If Canon can deliver anything close to last quarter's profitability on a similar revenue base, the year-over-year comparison will look dramatic. But the more meaningful test is whether the margin structure behind that $0.89 holds, because the top line itself has not been growing. Revenue roughly flat against last year means earnings gains have to come from mix, pricing, cost discipline or currency rather than volume. No clear published consensus figure is available to anchor expectations, and management has not offered fresh quantitative guidance since the last report, so the market will judge the quarter largely against Canon's own recent run rate.

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Top Earnings News

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The recent, most closely watched, earnings results.

Southwest Airlines Beat Expectations, Guides Below Estimates
Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 4:17 PM
Southwest Airlines (LUV) reported earnings of $0.66 per share on revenue of $8.42 billion for the third quarter ended September 2026. The consensus earnings estimate was $0.61 per share on revenue of $8.26 billion. The Earnings Whisper number was $0.50 per share. The company beat expectations by 32.00% while revenue grew 21.20% on a year-over-year basis.

The company said it expects fourth quarter non-GAAP earnings of $0.55 to $0.80 per share. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.99 per share for the quarter ending December 31, 2026.

Southwest Airlines Co is an operator of passenger airline that provides scheduled air transportation in the United States and international markets.

CACI International Beat Expectations, Raises Guidance
Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 4:15 PM
CACI International (CACI) reported earnings of $7.66 per share on revenue of $2.47 billion for the fiscal first quarter ended September 2026. The consensus earnings estimate was $6.45 per share on revenue of $2.50 billion. The Earnings Whisper number was $6.74 per share. The company beat expectations by 13.65% while revenue grew 8.17% on a year-over-year basis.

The company said it now expects fiscal 2027 non-GAAP earnings of $33.18 to $34.08 per share on revenue of $10.7 billion to $10.9 billion. The company's previous guidance was non-GAAP earnings of $32.96 to $33.86 per share on revenue of $10.7 billion to $10.9 billion. The current consensus earnings estimate is $32.24 per share on revenue of $10.8 billion for the year ending June 30, 2027.

CACI International Inc is a provider of information solutions and services to the U.S. government. Its segments include domestic operations and international operations.

Medpace Beat Expectations, Raises Guidance
Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 4:15 PM
Medpace (MEDP) reported earnings of $4.84 per share on revenue of $716.00 million for the third quarter ended September 2026. The consensus earnings estimate was $4.45 per share on revenue of $708.75 million. The Earnings Whisper number was $4.64 per share. The company beat expectations by 4.31% while revenue grew 8.50% on a year-over-year basis.

The company said it now expects 2026 earnings of $17.97 to $18.32 per share on revenue of $2.835 billion to $2.855 billion. The company's previous guidance was earnings of $17.25 to $17.95 per share on revenue of $2.805 billion to $2.885 billion. The current consensus earnings estimate is $17.54 per share on revenue of $2.840 billion for the year ending December 31, 2026.

Medpace is a scientifically-driven, global, full-service clinical contract research organization (CRO) providing Phase I-IV clinical development services to the biotechnology, pharmaceutical and medical device industries.

The Drift

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Upcoming Earnings

Big Tech, Banks and Jets: Why This Earnings Week Could Set the Market's Tone

October 17, 2026
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This is one of those weeks where Wall Street practically holds its breath. The marquee names are the ones everyone already has an opinion about. Netflix kicks things off with the kind of buzz that suggests traders expect good news from your weekend binge habit, while the social media giant behind your feed is heading in with quiet confidence and a tailwind at its back. On the industrial side, the aerospace and defense crowd looks sturdy, with the jet-engine maker and a cluster of missile-and-radar names walking in on solid footing. Carmakers are the wildcard: the electric-vehicle pioneer remains the stock everyone loves to argue about, and after a rough stretch the mood around it is cautiously warming, while the old-guard Detroit automaker is drawing surprisingly upbeat vibes. Expect fireworks either way, since options traders are bracing for some of these to swing hard the morning after.
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Recent Positive Earnings

XMTR 5.0% since the report




Trusted Earnings Research Since 1998

For more than 25 years, investors and financial professionals have used Earnings Whispers to look beyond consensus estimates and better understand the expectations driving stock prices around earnings.

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