Monday, October 18, 2021
This is the week we've been seeing spikes in volatility, but the big picture suggests such a move should be faded with support of the fundamental data that has resumed moving higher.
Getting to Alpha
Monday, October 11, 2021
Margin pressures from supply chain issues and difficulty passing along inflation costs are likely to hurt Industrials this earnings season, but now that we are starting to see companies miss estimates, it is leading to alpha among those with positive earnings.
Monday, October 4, 2021
Jobs data improved in September, which may be bad news in the face of Fed tapering, but the earnings data is coming in like 2010, and the Fed's asset purchases are still double that.
COVID and Liquidity
Monday, September 27, 2021
Breadth in the U.S. is a concern for the stock market, but evidence suggests global liquidity correlates with new COVID cases around the world.
Trade What You See
Monday, September 20, 2021
Trade what you see, not what you think... but in this case, that means going against two of the strongest constants in the market of late.
Guidance Season Approaches
Monday, September 13, 2021
"Guidance Season" is approaching and, so far, the percentage of announcements that are positive remains around record highs with fundamentals pointing to still higher earnings for the coming quarter.
Lag vs Lead
Tuesday, September 7, 2021
The jobs report disappointed last week, but that's a lagging indicator and the leading data that correlate with earnings and stocks ticked higher... with volatility lagging its recent pattern.
Monday, August 30, 2021
Job growth appears to have slowed during the month of August, but likely not materially different than the consensus estimates, which means there is little reason liquidity will change anytime soon.
Monday, August 23, 2021
The bearish divergence in the Aussie/Yen since COVID-19 cases started climbing in late June warns of global liquidity issues, but the oversold condition also gives us at least a short-term bounce as the U.S. fundamentals start turning higher again.
Monday, August 16, 2021
As earnings season comes to an end, investors will begin looking out to third quarter earnings or later. Companies have been telling us analysts' estimates for the coming quarters are too low, but there are now some early warning signs in the macroeconomic data.