Monday, January 14, 2019
The breadth thrust indicates a rare V-shaped bottom in the S&P 500, but the macroeconomic data shows economic activity peaked and is trending lower - suggesting weaker earnings that could weigh on stock prices this earnings season.
Curve Has Inverted
Monday, January 7, 2019
The shorter yield curve has inverted, which suggests we are at the beginning of the end for the economic cycle. The statistics still favor stocks after earnings here... but be mindful of the macroeconomic data that points to a peak in September.
Monday, December 31, 2018
The S&P 500 hit roughly right in the middle of our target range suggesting Wave 3 may be over, but the intermediate-term view is the same. Meanwhile, the employment report on Friday has upside potential to estimates
Liquidity vs Macro and Sentiment
Monday, December 17, 2018
Liquidity continues to drain, but macroeconomic data has improved of late, some sentiment measures are at an extreme, and Fed announcements tend to be turning points.
Swing in Sentiment
Monday, December 10, 2018
And just like that, sentiment has swung... and it turns out that means more than we thought
Monday, December 3, 2018
Once again, Friday's employment report is likely to be strong, but that strength is fading. While economic data appears to be softening, the market has made a technical reversal with sentiment at an extreme.
Sometimes There Are Exceptions
Monday, November 26, 2018
The numbers are convincing at such sentiment extremes, but it is the exceptions that you have to watch.
Potential Third Wave
Monday, November 19, 2018
The macroeconomic data continues to be mixed, but money flows and sentiment point to the potential start of the third wave.
Monday, November 12, 2018
Mixed coincident indicators suggest trading the range until it is broken.
Monday, November 5, 2018
The recent buy signal proved to be timely, but as the strength fades, be wary of the leading indicators.